J$P Instant Transcript! Robert Novak handicaps the 2008 GOP Presidential nomination.

From Studio-B, February 12 2006:

TRACE GALLAGHER [FOX NEWS]: Could Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist be gearing up for a go at the White House? Some Republican insiders say it's not so far-fetched. Frist apparently backing away from full support of President Bush, criticizing Iraq, the budget, and the inquiry into hurricane Katrina. Syndicated columnist and Fox News Contributor Bob Novak joins us from DC, his column on the issue running coast-to-coast this morning. Bob, I read your column this morning. So the question is, is Bill Frist gearing up for a run?

ROBERT NOVAK: Well it's always been thought, Trace, that Sen Frist was going to run for President. It's very difficult to run for President while you're Majority Leader, as Bob Dole, Howard Baker, and Lyndon Johnson found out in years past. And the thought was that he was not going to run. But recently, people haven't noticed it much, he has really been backing away from the President's position on these several issues, which is very unusual for a Majority Leader of the President's party. And that has increased speculation that he is trying to create distance between himself and the President, who was as low as 39% in the approval rating.

GALLAGHER: But what's the goal there, Bob? Even if he is planning to run, you want to back away from the President's policies. But what's the goal, what's the hope?

NOVAK: The hope is that he establishes himself not just as a mouthpiece for an unpopular President, but a figure who is independent in his own right, as McCain has been independent in his own right. I thought the most interesting statement that Sen Frist has made was that he said that the administration probably made a mistake in not putting enough troops into Iraq. That is a very critical statement. He also has opposed the President on the diminishing, reducing of National Guard forces. And on the Terri Schiavo case, he said both he and the President were wrong, and the administration were wrong, in intervening. So this is, in my opinion, trying to establish Bill Frist as more than a Majority Leader. Now the question is: How is that compatible with being the Majority Leader in the Senate of the incumbent President? When Sen Bob Byrd of Virginia was Majority Leader and Jimmy Carter was President, he said in effect, the hell with Jimmy Carter, he's not my guy. And I don't think Republicans would do that, but it's a kind of an ambiguous situation for Frist.

GALLAGHER: Let me move on if I can, Bob, to John McCain. We have a couple of polls to show you here. We have some polling that shows that John McCain, in a head-to-head race with Hillary Clinton, does pretty well: 51% to Hillary Clinton's 38%. Why is it that everybody loves John McCain except for the party leaders?

NOVAK: Well he's a very difficult and, shall we say, flinty character to deal with in the Senate. He is a very popular figure in America. He's a war hero, he's independent. But the biggest problem that John McCain has with Republicans is his position on taxes. He is, he believes that there is a gap between the rich and the poor, which is a Democratic position, and he's been very much opposed to the Bush tax cuts. Now a lot of his advisors are saying if you can just ameliorate your position and come to kind sort of feeling between you and President--agreement between you and the Republican consensus on tax cuts, boy John McCain, you are a runaway front runner. But that is a big "if", that is a big gap that Sen McCain, who is a stubborn man, has not been able to close as yet.

GALLAGHER: I've got 10 seconds, Bob. Handicap it for me. Does McCain run? And if he runs, does he win?

NOVAK: He runs, I don't know if he wins. The candidate of the insiders, Trace, is Sen George Allen of Virginia. He's very low in the Gallup polls, but watch him, because the boys in the back room like him.

GALLAGHER: Bob Novak, Bob, great to see you on this side of the dial. Come again soon.

NOVAK: My pleasure, thank you.